Working paper
Growth and Firm Dynamics in a Banking System Favoring Big Firms
Working Paper (version 2): here
Results are very preliminary.
Comments are welcome!
Banks favor big firms by offering small firms different menu choices, which leads to disproportionate borrowing costs. I study big firm favorism in credit markets as a source of cross-country divergence and lower business dynamism.
First, I provide some new evidence on the nature of this relationship across low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Using a dataset from 71 countries, I summarize some key findings below.
Figure 1: Corporate Financing in Low-, Middle-, and High-income Countries
The disproportionate cost of borrowing drastically declines as we move from low-income to high-income countries.
Figure 2: Interest rate over firm size life cycle, age groups
Figure 3: Interest rate over firm age life cycle, size groups
So, in a way, getting older doesn't make firms wiser to negotiate better loan terms. These results suggests that there might be a more systematic reason for why there is a negative relationship between firm size and loan terms. However, I am not trying to understand that problem here.
Then, I integrate these stylized empirical facts into a Schumpeterian growth model with heterogeneous firm dynamics. Since the mathematical model I am using is quite detailed and complex, I only present the simulation results of the model with three key equations.
Figure 4: Simulation results, considering different values of φ
Table 1: Growth rate and change decomposition by firm size
Counterfactual policy interventions to alleviate disproportionate borrowing costs suggest a 10% to 21% increase in the economic growth rate in the US.